Handicapping a race where winners don't always prevail

Race Predictions

Season 27, Episode 2 preview – As the Race is about to start its second leg, let’s ponder a bit on the wisdom of crowds, at least our crowd.

Gnome

Most of the members of our Amazing Race pool have been picking teams and betting on the outcome since the fall of 2009. That’s a lot of teams and a lot of over-exposure to the Travelocity gnome.

Our method of matching our teams with the Race teams has changed over the years, but we typically do the picking after the first leg and the reduction of the field to 10.

Team Showers

Generally, the winning pool team from one season goes to the end of the line the next season, picking last. Conversely, the losing pool team one season picks first the next.

Thus, Team Showers, who were eliminated first during Season 26, picked first this season.

They went with Joey and Kelsey, the perfectly presentably pair of television personalities who came in eighth on the first lap last week, one that started in California and ended in Brazil.

Kelsey and Joey

You might ask, “Why would they go for a team that finished that far back rather than Josh and Tanner, the best friends who dominated the first leg, finishing first^.”

(At least I hear they dominated. I drifted off mid-race, the worse for wear from the delights of Brooklyn.)

Brooklyn watering hole

Well, Denny and Emily Showers may be on to something, as history shows that, at least recently, the first-place finishers don't prevail in the end.

Season 26 saw Jelani and Jenny, the blind-dating lawyers, win the first leg but finish fourth overall. Laura and Tyler, the eventual winners, started out in third place.

Laura and Tyler

In Season 25, dentists Misti and Jim – she was nice, he was manic – took the opener but came in second in the end to Amy and Maya, the sweet scientists, who started out in sixth.

Dave and Rachel

The last time a team has gone from first to first was in Season 20 (2012) when Dave and Rachel (he was a combat pilot; she was a project manager) dominated throughout. They may have been the strongest team ever to compete in the Amazing Race.

In Season 19, Cindy and Ernie, an engaged couple who did not seem made for each other, also pulled off the opening win and the final victory.

I haven't gone back to check all of the seasons, but in both Season 17 and Season 16 the team that won in the beginning lost in the end.

Beekman Boys

So Denny and Emily may be on to something in shunning Josh and Tanner, and they also may have been wise in picking a mid-or-even-lower pack team.

After all, Amy and Maya rose from sixth place; and Brent and Josh, the Beekman Boys, won Season 21 after starting in seventh.

Reality check: A quick scan of recent seasons does suggest that more often than not the winners come from the early strong finishers, so Denny and Emily may be taking a leap of faith.

Luke and Margie

Selecting is always tricky, though, as choices have to be made on what’s basically a first impression balanced by a sense of history.

Thus, though the mother/son duo of Denise and James Earl finished fourth on the episode, they were picked last in the pool, probably because selectors remember the mother/son duo of Margie and Luke and his occasional breakdowns.

The cheerleaders, Krista and Tiffany, had a perfectly dreadful outing, finishing 10^th and next-to-last.

Their stock fell on that performance, especially because they carried their neck pillows wherever they went, but they’re

Tiffany and Krista

battling a bias, as well, as cheerleaders have not always excelled in the past. “There’s a stereotype,” one of them said.

Kelley and Schivone, some sassy TMZers, were 11^th and eliminated because they could not put a puzzle together that the cheerleaders solved. I’m not sure K and S would have drawn much interest had they survived, though they were fun and may be missed.

Justin and Diana

And speaking of fun, will it be pushing the envelope if all of us have a beer every time Justin breaks down and cries? I mean, that guy is wound tight.

Overheard:

Almost nothing. Remember, I drifted off:

Jin (of Alex and Adam): Don’t underestimate the little people (Alex and Adam).

Order of Finish Episode One

1) Josh and Tanner

2) Jazmine and Danielle

3) Cindy and Rick

4) Denise and James Earl

5) Logan and Chris

6) Adam and Alex

7) Ernest and Jin

8) Joey and Kelsey

9) Justin and Diana

10) Tiffany and Krista

11) Kelley and Schivone (eliminated.)