The Amazing Race
Season 34, Episode 7
By Jim Memmott
Toulouse, France – First the results, then the predictions:
It’s good to stay cool, calm and cute. Mattie Lynch and Quinton Peron did that, remaining true to their mantra.
But it’s not so good to take wrong turns, to have a bad day at the wheel, to lose time.
That killed the two former L.A. Rams cheerleaders (right, CBS) They were eliminated (as were poolsters Dennis Doell and Julio Ferreria) despite Quinton’s outstanding performance drop kicking a Rugby ball, one of the challenges, and their speedy work on the French-poetry challenge.
Claire Rehfuss and Derek Xaio (left, CBS) took first, primarily because they had zipped through the French poetry. (Derek studied French in high school; Claire made use of mnemonics. All that worked.)
So, we’re down to five teams, and its’s time to do a little data mining and predict some winners and losers.
Actually, the data mining isn’t that complex. All I’ve done is add up the team’s finishes in each episode. The lower the total number, the higher the ranking. (It’s sort of like golf.)
At the top:
Military brothers Marcus and Michael Craig are tied overall with
The teams have finished first twice; neither has been in great danger.
They have different dispositions, different styles. Marcus and Michael (right, CBS) have their military training on their side. It does help. They also have high expectations of themselves and can be disappointed when they deserve to be happy.
Claire and Derek, alums of Big Brother, are quicker to poke fun at each other. They actually seem to be having a good time
In the middle:
The numbers place the team of Luis Colon and Michelle Burgos (27), a married couple, and the team of Emily Bushnell and Molly Sinert (29), long separated sisters, in the middle of the remaining pack.
The sisters are strong as well, their numbers hurt by a few so-so outings. One thing that could hold them back is Molly’s bum leg. She seems to be limping more, and, obviously, that could hurt them on a task involving running.
Last:
There’s a big gap between those four teams and the fifth surviving duo: Aubrey Ares and David Hernandez (44).
The absolutely likeable married couple and ballroom dancers (right, CBS) were next-to-last in the most recent episode, and they have only one strong finish, a second in Episode 6.
A betting person would say Aubrey and David are the next to go. (Though give them credit for switching map reading and driving duty in the last episode. I don’t think that happens that often on the Race, and it helped.)
A hunch:
The analytics tell me one thing, but what about my gut?
I’ll go out on a limb and say Luis and Michelle will win it all. I’ve been wrong before, actually always wrong, but I’ll stick with that prediction. My second favorite to take home the $1 million would be Claire and Derek. Claire had me at yodel.
Overheard
Marcus: We want this leg to be mistake-free.
Michelle: Luis and Derek have a bromance going on, so that might be a positive thing.
Claire: We’re trying to do a lot of small things to improve.
Aubrey: Today we’re going to enjoy ourselves and speak nicely, as David asked me to do.
Claire: I had some friends who told me I should play rugby.
Marcus: My bad, man; I can’t kick a ball.
Luis: I don’t come from a family of bricklayers; I come from a family of salsa dancers. I don’t do construction; I don’t even do Legos.
Quinton: I’m having a moment. Hold on.
Emily (crying): For a second, I was thinking about my daughter and just pushing through.
Marcus: We live to fight another day.
Oder of finish
1. Derek Xiao, Claire Rehfuss (Big Brother graduates)
2. Luis Colon, Michelle Burgos (Married couple)
3. Emily Bushnell, Molly Sinert (Long-lost twins)
4. Marcus and Michael Craig (Military brothers)
5. Aubrey Ares, David Hernandez (Ballroom dancers)
Eliminated:
6. Quinton Peron, Mattie Lynch (Former LA Rams cheerleaders)
